Market report oils and fats September 2025

September 2025: Gustav Heess informs about the current market situation of soybean oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, olive oil, castor oil, almond oil, walnut oil, pistachio oil and hazelnut oil.

 

Oil	Current Situation	Outlook & Development	Price Trend
Soybean Oil	Global production +1 Mt YoY; U.S. harvest 117 Mt; exports –20% as China sources from South America	Dependent on U.S. biodiesel policy and La Niña weather risks in South America	Currently low, possible upside if weather impacts yields
Sunflower Oil	EU harvest 8.75 Mt, slightly above last year; Black Sea harvest delayed	Short-term tightness, later easing as new crop enters market	Firm short-term, weaker later
Rapeseed Oil	Global crop 81.25 Mt (up from 75.41 Mt); EU +3 Mt	Political and biodiesel regulations remain key	Stable to slightly lower
Olive Oil	Spain ~1.5 Mt; low stocks; Italy affected by olive fly	New crop offers from Dec ~10% below spot; Portugal slightly down	Rising now, slight easing expected later
Castor Oil	Indian 2025 stocks nearly depleted; new crop due early 2026	U.S. tariffs hurting exports; normal rainfall with some flooding	Moderate volatility, likely stable through Q1 2026
Almond Oil	Crop may be < 3 billion lbs; strong southern yields, weaker west/central	Weaker USD supports exports	Stable to slightly higher
Walnut Oil	Harvest underway in Northern California; runs through November	First variety (Howard) processed; results pending	Stable
Pistachio Kernel Oil	Record U.S. crop (> 1.5 billion lbs)	“On” year with +20% yield; healthy trees	Slightly declining
Hazelnut Oil	Turkey hit by frost (–30% yield possible); Oregon good crop	Global shortage persists despite U.S. gains	Strongly rising

 

You can find more detailed information on the Gustav Heess website.